Gas prices look to be rebounding

ALBANY — Like Dracula, Halloween gas prices appear to be on the rise.

The two-headed monster that is causing an increase at the gas pump at an unseasonable time for it is on the supply side: increases in crude oil and wholesale gas prices.

On Monday, both AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report and the GasBuddy’s Fuel Insights showed the national average gas price up about a penny from the previous Monday, with AAA pegging that U.S. average at $2.466 and GasBuddy setting it at $2.458.

Both Georgia and metro Albany averages were below the U.S. number, but indications were their declines had slowed and were moving upward. Several Albany gas stations showed overnight increases Monday.

Those may not have been captured on AAA’s morning benchmark, which had metro Albany with the lowest average of Georgia’s eight largest metro areas at $2.23, a 2-cent drop in a a week and 4.1 cents below runner-up Macon. The highest gas in Georgia on AAA’s list was metro Savannah at $2.398.

Georgia’s average on AAA’s survey Monday was $2.355, down 3.4 cents in a week and 17.1 cents below last month. GasBuddy had the state average at $2.344, less than a half-cent below last week and 24.5 cents under last month. GasBuddy also had the Albany metro area average above $2.30 by mid-afternoon Monday.

Market analysts with both survey organizations said motorists can expect to see gas prices rise during a week when they usually don’t.

“Oil prices have rebounded in the last week, led higher by geopolitical tensions and declining inventories, leading gasoline prices in some parts of the country to make an unseasonable move higher,” Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said. “As refineries continue autumn maintenance, we may continue to see gasoline inventories under pressure, with a mixed bag of increases and decreases in the weeks ahead until the conclusion of such maintenance.

“Meanwhile, exports of crude oil and refined products continue to hit record levels, also weighing on markets. Without the ability to export crude oil, inventories in the U.S. would have continued to increase, keeping pressure on oil prices, but without such protection, oil is flowing out of the U.S. at a record pace.”

Mark Jenkins, spokesman for AAA Auto Club Group, said motorists may not see prices much lower than Monday’s through the end of the year.

“The streak of falling prices should come to an end this week,” he said. “Oil and wholesale gasoline prices made solid gains last week, after the EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) supply report showed high U.S. crude and gasoline exports and an increase in gasoline demand. Fortunately, U.S. crude production levels appear to be stabilizing after Hurricane Nate caused a reduction, and refinery capacity is now back to pre-Hurricane Harvey levels.

“Continued growth in oil inventories will keep a ceiling on oil prices and prevent gasoline prices from making strong gains. While there could be some volatility, gas prices should follow a mostly downward trend through the rest of the year. However, the discount at the pump is not currently forecast to be much lower than present levels.”

U.S. crude closed at $53.92 a barrel Friday and was above $54 late Monday afternoon.

The Atlantic hurricane season continues through the end of November. After successive powerful cyclones in September, the storm formation has slowed in recent weeks, and there were no immediate threats to the Gulf fuel production region.

On Monday, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring a disturbance in the mid-Atlantic about 1,000 miles east of Bermuda. The storm was given a 30 percent chance of developing into a cyclone in two days and a 40 percent chance of developing into one in five days.

Monday’s prices were significantly above 2016 levels. Albany’s average was 15.2 cents above the AAA survey average for Oct. 30, 2016. According to the surveys, Georgia’s average was up 17.6-18.5 cents from last year, and the U.S. average was 24.5-25.3 cents higher.