Dougherty won on the field. Why is Cairo still ahead in playoff rankings?

ALBANY — Dougherty settled its game with Cairo on the field. The playoff formula has reached a different conclusion.

The region champion Trojans remain behind the Syrupmakers in Georgia’s postseason rankings, illustrating a system in which winning a head-to-head matchup does not guarantee the higher position.

With the regular season ending Friday, the Georgia High School Association’s Post Season Ranking system is giving fans another scoreboard to watch — one that includes teams their schools haven’t played.

Under PSR, a team’s weighted winning percentage accounts for 35% of its rating. Opponents’ winning percentage contributes another 35%, while opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage supplies the remaining 30%.

Head-to-head results break ties only when teams have identical PSR totals.

That means schedule strength can outweigh the result fans remember most.

Dougherty and Cairo provide a local example. Both are listed at 8-1, so their own winning percentages contribute equally. Cairo leads in both schedule categories, leaving the Syrupmakers fifth and Dougherty sixth in GHSA’s published Class 4A rankings.

The Trojans’ victory over Cairo counts toward their record. It does not provide a separate bonus that places them above the Syrupmakers.

Wednesday morning’s GHSA listing showed six area playoff contenders in these positions:

School	Classification	Published PSR rank
Lee County	6A	2
Dougherty	4A	6
Westover	4A	14
Worth County	3A	15
Randolph-Clay	A	3
Mitchell County	A	8

These are preliminary published rankings, not final bracket seeds. The classification listings include private schools that will compete in a separate championship bracket, adding another distinction between the numbers fans see now and eventual postseason placement.

A statewide debate

The questions extend well beyond Albany.

Lowndes beat Valdosta 32-31, but Valdosta remains first in Class 7A while unbeaten Lowndes is third. In Class 3A, Toombs County remains above unbeaten Appling County despite losing their meeting.

The AJC reports that Maxwell Ratings projects 25 teams will receive lower seeds than opponents they defeated, without conflicting indirect results such as a three-team circle.

Appling County coach JD Sellers told the AJC he prefers the former system built around region finishes, noting that schools cannot know how strong opponents will become when schedules are arranged.

The disagreement centers on what should carry the most weight: a season’s schedule or the result when two teams meet.

PSR supplies a mathematical answer. That does not necessarily make the answer satisfying to the team that won.

What is settled for the first round?

For Dougherty, one important reward is secure: The Trojans will host a first-round playoff game because they won their region.

GHSA guarantees region champions a home opener and accommodates them within the bracket. Remaining qualifiers and seeds are determined through PSR. A region championship does not automatically put a team above every nonchampion statewide.

Lee County, Westover, Worth County, Randolph-Clay and Mitchell County will learn their assignments after the rankings and bracket placements are finalized. Their current positions offer an indication of standing, but do not confirm opponents or hosting arrangements.

Baconton Charter and Calhoun County will not compete in the playoffs because they are not playing region schedules. GHSA requires a region schedule and the minimum number of contests for postseason eligibility.

The first round is scheduled for Nov. 13. Higher-seeded teams host before the championship round, with first-round hosting protected for region champions.

When will pairings be announced?

The brackets will be settled after the final regular-season games and verification of results. An exact announcement time has not been confirmed in the published information reviewed.

Last year’s PSR-seeded brackets appeared Sunday evening following the final games, according to the AJC.

That verification matters. An AJC and Maxwell audit found incorrect records for 82 teams as of Oct. 27, affecting PSR totals for 401 teams.

GHSA requires schools to enter scores immediately after games because results can affect rankings across classifications.

Dougherty already has the region championship and the promise of a home playoff opener. What it doesn’t have is an opponent.

That answer will come after Friday — when the final whistle starts another round of calculations.