EDITORIAL: Will Iran honor the nuclear programs agreement?

The biggest question to come out of the deal that the United States and its allies made with Iran over that nation’s nuclear program is simply this: Will Iran live up to it?

Frankly, there are serious doubts.

Iran’s government has a lousy track record of living up to agreements it had reached in the past. The idea that Tehran will suddenly become a good world citizen now is hard to believe.

Looking at reaction to the deal, supporters are generally expressing guarded optimism. And that’s probably the best tactic for those supporting the agreement, since this one, like few others, has the potential to be a political nightmare in the future if Iran, once sanctions are lifted, returns to its stance of noncooperation and hiding its activities.

There is a chance that the deal can work, that making Iran less isolated will expose its people — especially its younger citizens — to new experiences and ideas that they will take home. The best scenario would be for moderates to somehow make inroads into the Iranian government and decision-making, but Iranian hardliners have a tenacious grip on that.

There are some political ramifications here in the United States, of course, President Obama is looking at this agreement — historic, regardless of whether you think it’s a good or bad deal — and opening relations with Cuba as his legacies on foreign policy. Certainly positive results from both of those actions would give him that legacy he is looking for.

It also gives opponents to deal in Congress free shots at criticizing it as a sellout of the United States and Israel, where the leadership is now turning to Congress in the hope that it can derail the agreement that it sees as dangerous for its own national security. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are pledging to read every line to make sure that Americans’ best interests are being protected.

The fact is it is as certain as certainty can be reached in the political realm that this nuclear programs deal will go through later this year. In May, Congress passed an act that gives it 60 days to review the agreement. During that period, Obama can’t waive the sanctions Congress imposed on Iran. After their review, if senators and representatives determine the agreement is not in the best interests of the United States and its allies, they can pass resolutions of disapproval that would prevent Obama from lifting the sanctions, which would effectively scuttle the agreement.

And with Republicans in charge of both houses, there is a good chance that a majority in both houses will reach such a conclusion.

It won’t matter. Senate rules (Remember the filibuster that Democrats hated when they were in the majority?) will keep a resolution of disapproval from progressing in the Senate unless 60 senators support it. If all Republicans held together, they would still need six from the Democratic caucus, which includes two independents, to join them. The House, meanwhile, can pass a resolution with a simple majority.

Even if resolutions do pass both houses, the president has vowed that he would veto the legislation. To override that veto, each house would have to muster two-third majorities to do it, meaning even more Democrats would have to oppose the president. Given the climate, it’s highly improbable the votes could be mustered to override a veto in the House, much less the Senate, unless something earthshaking happened to suddenly shift the political landscape.

The deal will go through, though it may be even more unpopular after it has been dissected. Obama will be able to lift the congressional sanctions against Iran sometime this fall when the review window slams shut. We can only hope the agreement is as good as the White House claims it is and not the folly that Republican opponents claim, because it’s one that we, as Americans, are going to have to live with, as will our allies.