Braves’ October plans take shape

By Mark Bowman, Braves.com

ATLANTA — With October approaching, the Atlanta Braves’ postseason pitching picture is beginning to come into focus.

There are still questions to answer.

But one of the biggest may have finally been settled.

Tyler Mahle has emerged as the likely No. 2 starter behind Chris Sale after posting a 1.24 ERA through his first six starts with Atlanta. His latest outing provided perhaps the strongest evidence yet, as Mahle threw six scoreless innings against Philadelphia in an atmosphere resembling what the Braves could encounter in October.

If Sale and Mahle aren’t needed during the final weekend of the regular season, the Braves could line them up to start the first two games of a best-of-three National League Wild Card Series.

After that, things become less certain.

Grant Holmes strengthened his case by throwing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts against Philadelphia on Monday. With Bryce Elder recovering from knee surgery, Atlanta could potentially use Holmes along with Martín Pérez in a piggyback arrangement if a third Wild Card game is necessary.

Reynaldo López is another possibility, but his performance over the final weeks could determine whether he earns a significant postseason role.

Then there is AJ Smith-Shawver.

The 23-year-old right-hander entered September as a potential candidate for Atlanta’s postseason rotation but has yet to establish himself as a dependable starter. Smith-Shawver has made only 20 major league starts in his career and five this season while still working his way back from Tommy John surgery.

His numbers, however, suggest he could be useful in a different role.

Opponents facing Smith-Shawver for the first time in a game have batted just .162 with a .608 OPS. He has a 1.80 ERA in the first inning of his five starts, and opponents have missed on 31.6% of their swings against him in those opening frames.

That could make his four-seam fastball and splitter combination an intriguing weapon for one-inning appearances out of the bullpen.

Atlanta could use the remaining weeks of the regular season to give Smith-Shawver relief opportunities and determine whether he could bolster an already deep postseason bullpen.

Robert Suarez is another important piece.

The Braves hope Suarez can return to the bullpen before the end of the regular season. If healthy, he could join Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes to give Atlanta four potentially formidable late-inning options.

Smith-Shawver could provide additional depth while also easing Lee’s workload. Dylan Dodd gives Atlanta another potential postseason weapon despite allowing two home runs in his most recent outing.

The bullpen could be especially important because of the Wild Card Series format. Atlanta entered Thursday four games behind Los Angeles in the race for the National League’s second postseason bye, increasing the possibility the Braves will have to play a best-of-three opening-round series.

Pitching, however, isn’t Atlanta’s only October concern.

The offense has struggled recently, particularly Matt Olson.

Olson had a .900 OPS following an Aug. 7 loss at Yankee Stadium but has hit .167 with a .533 OPS and 30% strikeout rate over the 29 games since.

Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubón have also posted an OPS below .600 during that span.

There are encouraging signs. Ronald Acuña Jr. has begun looking more like himself and has produced a .774 OPS during the same stretch, while rookie Drake Baldwin is at .754.

Atlanta still has time to get its offense straightened out.

Its pitching plans for October, meanwhile, are starting to take shape.