Braves’ offense drawing concerns as NL East race tightens

By Mark Bowman, Braves.com

ATLANTA — Instead of riding the wave of momentum created by Sunday’s thrilling comeback win over the Phillies, the Braves have spent the past few days creating reason to wonder if their offense is the most significant concern.   

Reynaldo López struggled as he made his return from the injured list in a 7-2 loss to the Rays on Wednesday night at Truist Park. His rough outing extended what has been a trying few days for the back end of Atlanta’s rotation. But the Braves’ greater concern may be an offense that has totaled three runs over the past three days.

“There’s been some extremes this year with the highs and lows offensively,” manager Walt Weiss said. “We’ve got to ride it out and figure it out.” 

As the Braves were enduring their third straight loss, the Phillies were claiming a convincing win over the Astros. Atlanta now has a three-game lead over Philadelphia with 16 games remaining in the NL East race. The two teams will begin a three-game series on Friday in Atlanta.

Here are three takeaways from the Braves’ latest loss:

Prolonged offensive struggles
Everything seemed to be fine when Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a game-tying homer in the eighth inning of Sunday’s comeback win in Philadelphia. Along with helping Atlanta gain a five-game division lead, that home run prevented the Braves from exiting Wednesday having scored two runs or fewer in five straight games.  

It should be noted that Atlanta was victimized by some tough luck in this latest setback. Just two of the 10 balls the club hit 100 mph or harder resulted in a hit. They were Drake Baldwin’s fourth-inning homer and Acuña’s sixth-inning double, which set the stage for a Matt Olson sac fly.  

Two of the three balls Acuña put in play were hit 100 mph or harder. He’s currently boasting a 1.182 OPS going back to Aug. 28. The only other qualified Braves with a .700-plus OPS during this span are Michael Harris II (.773) and Baldwin (.733).

Olson has constructed a .322 OPS during this 12-game stretch. More concerning is the .533 OPS Olson has produced while watching his MVP candidacy evaporate over the past 30 games. 

Like Olson recently, the entire offense has experienced some extremes this year. The Braves ended April with MLB’s second-best OPS (.785). Over the 114 games played since the start of May, they own MLB’s sixth-worst OPS (.685).

Process of elimination
If the posteason started tomorrow, Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle and Grant Holmes would be the Braves’ top candidates to make starts. Martin Pérez could get back in the mix with a strong showing in Thursday’s series finale against the Rays. But the veteran lefty weakened his candidacy when he walked four and surrendered seven hits over 3 2/3 innings on Saturday. 

Unfortunately, that was just the start of a bad stretch for the back end of the Braves’ rotation. 

Bryce Elder’s availability during the early part of the postseason will be questionable as he recovers from arthroscopic knee surgery performed on Tuesday. AJ Smith-Shawver looked more like a reliever than a starter in Tuesday night’s loss.   

As for López, he didn’t inspire much confidence as he allowed seven hits and six earned runs on Wednesday. But it should be noted that just three of the balls put in play against him were hit 100 mph or harder.

“That’s their game,” López said through an interpreter. “Whether it’s hard-hit balls or soft-hit balls, they did damage with it.”

Six-man rotation?
Smith-Shawver has a 7.71 ERA through five starts and he has completed five innings in just one of those outings. If the Braves stick with their current six-man rotation, Smith-Shawver would start against the Cubs, who lead MLB in runs and homers, next week at Wrigley Field.

The Braves could promote JR Ritchie to make that start. But because Ritchie has been optioned five times already this year, he would have to remain on the roster the remainder of the year. 

Why not just go to a five-man rotation? Well, there has been great benefit in having Sale pitch once a week. He could stick to his every-Friday schedule if Smith-Shawver or a potential call-up makes a start at Wrigley.  

Keeping Sale in good shape is important. But rolling the dice on pitchers like López and Smith-Shawver in the heart of a pennant race isn’t necessarily a sound gamble. 

Weiss has repeatedly said he has no plans for the rotation beyond this weekend’s series against the Phillies. The good news is Sale, Mahle and Holmes could bring some stability as they start those three games.