Masters an interesting numbers game in 2019

AUGUSTA — Like a lot of big-time sporting events, the Masters can sometimes turn into a numbers game, and there are plenty of interesting numbers leading into the 2019 tournament.

In fact, while the opening round at Augusta National was still two days away on Tuesday, history has already been made.

The 83rd edition of the Masters will mark the first time that a previous Masters champion is not among the top 10 of the official World Golf Rankings.

Of course, that fact does come with a bit of a caveat in that the official World Golf Rankings weren’t introduced until April 6, 1986, just a week before Jack Nicklaus made history with his sixth and final championship, and by becoming the oldest champion at age 46.

Still, the closest former champion to be found near the top of the top 10 this year is Tiger Woods, a four-time former champion who comes into this week ranked No. 12 after a resurgent 2018 season that included seven top-10 finishes, culminating with a win at the Tour Championship at East Lake Country Club in Atlanta.

In fact, only two other former champions — two-time champion Bubba Watson (17) and defending champion Patrick Reed (18) — are in the current top 20, while Phil Mickelson is the only other past champion in the top 25.

If that number didn’t seem to be enough of an indicator that the winner of this year’s tournament will most likely be a first-time winner, add in the fact that only twice in the last dozen years — Watson in 2014 and Mickelson in 2010 — in which there has been a repeat winner.

But not so fast, says Reed, himself a first-time winner a year go after shooting 15-under par 273.

“I don’t know. I haven’t won my second (smiling),” Reed said following his practice session Tuesday. “But I would always — I would always feel like it would be harder to win the first because every guy out here believes that they can win a major. And you know, you feel like you have the game to do it, but until you actually do it, there’s always that kind of self‑doubt in the back of your mind that’s always like, well, you know, even though I believe I can do it, well, I haven’t done it yet, and am I going to be able to do it.

“So once you get over that hurdle and you do it once, then all of a sudden now your confidence goes even higher because you start believing; not only do you believe that you can win, but you’ve also already done, it as well. To me, I was always thinking that the first one would be the hardest.”

Among the other interesting numbers that may, or may not, aid in predicting this year’s champion, one might consider what the leaderboard looks like after Thursday’s opening round.

Over the last 13 years, the player who went on to win the Masters championship positioned somewhere inside the top 10 of the standings, a fact that came as a surprise to Tiger Woods, the last player to win the title from outside the top 10 after the first day.

“Yeah, that’s a very interesting stat,” said Woods, who was in 13th place after the first round before rallying in the final round Sunday to defeat Chris DiMarco on the first sudden-death playoff hole. “I know that most of the winners have come from the final group, but I didn’t know that one after the first day. It’s interesting. It’s interesting you brought up that stat because I think this is one of the courses you can make up a lot of ground. You can get on one of these hot rounds and make up some shots, like I did in (2005) against Chris. I got on a nice little run, made seven in a row and next thing you know, I’m in the lead.

“You know, I think that’s where this golf course allows you to do that, but you get going the other way pretty quickly, too. I just think if you get off to a quick start here, a solid start, it gives us a lot of confidence going forward.”

Getting back to the original number, it’s possible there might have been a past Masters champion inside this year’s top 10 had Brooks Koepka been able to play last year.

The 28-year-old missed last year’s tournament with a wrist injury, but bounced back to win his second straight U.S. Open, and then added the 2018 PGA Championship to his trophy case in rising to No. 1 in the World Rankings and earning the PGA Tour’s Player of the Year honors.

Now standing at No. 4 in the rankings behind Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy, Koepka acknowledges that those results create higher expectations, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he feels any extra pressure heading into this weekend.

“I just keep it very simple,” Koepka said. “Pressure is something you create on your own when you start thinking about the results. If you’re not thinking about the results, there’s really no pressure.

“It’s like when you’re practicing. The second you start thinking about, what will happen if I make this or what might come of it, then that’s when you start feeling pressure and there’s no pressure if you’re not thinking about the results.”