MOVING THE CHAINS: A Tale of Two Billy’s

There have been numerous vacancies for college football coaches throughout the nation, most notably in Tuscaloosa where Nick Saban has decided seven National Championships is enough — although personally I believe he is stepping aside because of the ugly transformation the college football landscape has undergone in recent years.

That being said, Alabama went ahead and hired the ‘hot coach of the moment,’ Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, perhaps Alabama should have looked a little closer to home for the man to replace a legend.

Florida’s Billy Napier may just be a diamond in the ro♦ ugh.

In its history, the University of Florida has hired two coaches named Billy. One is responsible for the most victories on the hardcourt in the school’s program history, not to mention two National Championships; the other has a losing record on the gridiron and is facing the toughest regular season schedule in the country in 2024.

On the surface, it would appear that the school in Gainesville is batting .500, going one-for-two, in hiring a man named Billy to run their respective athletic programs. Billy Donovan is the ‘one’ of the one-for-two, and Billy Napier is, well, he’s the other one.

That being said, let’s take a closer look. It appears the two Billy’s might have more in common than you might think.

Donovan, the basketball coach from 1996 to 2015, posted a cumulative record of 27 — 32 in his first two seasons at the helm. In other words, his teams won 46% of their games.

Napier, the football coach for the past two seasons, now has a cumulative record of 11 — 14. That means with Napier on the sidelines, his teams have thus far won 44% of their games.

There’s not too much of a difference between 46% and 44%, to be honest. Let’s continue.

Donovan coached for two years at Marshall before joining the Gators. The Thundering Herd, members of Conference USA, posted a record of 35 — 20 (64%) under Donovan’s watch.

Napier coached for four years at Louisiana, and his Ragin’ Cajuns, members of the Sun Belt Conference, posted a cumulative record of 40 — 12 (77%).

In my book, 77% beats 64% … 100% of the time.

Incidentally, Marshall recently became a member of the Sun Belt Conference. It is mentioned here because if Donovan had arrived in Gainesville the same year as Napier (2022), there would be two ‘Sun Belt Billy’s,’ the nickname mockingly bestowed on Napier by impatient and disgruntled Gator football fans who have become spoiled by the likes of Steve Spurrier, Urban Meyer, and Billy Donovan, who all won National Championships for the University of Florida early in their tenures in Gainesville: Spurrier in his 7th season, Meyer in his 2nd (as well as 4th), and Donovan in his 10th (as well as 11th) seasons.

As for early post-season competition:

In Donovan’s second season, his team was invited to the NIT, only to lose in the first round.

In Napier’s first season, his team lost in the post-season Las Vegas Bowl.

While neither the NIT or the Las Vegas Bowl is anything to write home about, making the postseason in one’s first season beats doing it in their second season every time.

Now, at least for the time being, this is where the rubber meets the road. After his first two seasons with the Gators, Donovan’s teams posted a record of 440 — 154 (74%) over the next 17 years. They also won back-to-back National Championships in 2006 and 2007. The Gators’ composite record in 14 appearances in March Madness was an impressive 35 — 12 (also 74%).

How Napier will do in third season with the Gators remains to be seen. Will he follow the path of Billy #1 — or perhaps the paths of Steve and Urban — or will he be next in a line of coaches — Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen — who couldn’t live up to the expectations of the Gator Nation?

Napier faces a Murderer’s Row lineup of opponents in 2024: Miami, Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU, and Ole Miss at home; Tennessee, Texas, and Florida State on the road; and Georgia for their annual get-together in Jacksonville.

If Napier can survive next year — with the schedule they have, six wins should qualify as enough — he’ll likely be sticking around for another season or two.

And if things go well from there, he just might be in Gainesville for as long as that other Billy.

The optimist in me hopes for the best.

The realist in me is, well, more realistic.

♦ I was totally kidding earlier. Not about me being realistic, though.

About Napier being a diamond in the rough.