Market experts say ‘spring sting’ at gas pump is on its way

ALBANY — Gas prices nationally and statewide held steady over the past week, but market experts say the annual “spring sting” is on its way to gas pumps.

The national average Monday was hovering around $2.28 a gallon, steady from last week, according to two major surveys of retail gas outlets conducted by GasBuddy.com and the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

The two surveys were slightly wider for Georgia — AAA’s Monday morning benchmark was at $2.18 while GasBuddy’s was lower at $2.176 — but both estimates were nearly flat compared to Feb. 6.

Metro Albany, meanwhile, saw a 4.4 cents-per-gallon increase over the week, ranking Albany third-lowest among the state’s eight largest metro areas surveyed by AAA. The Macon and Augusta metro areas tied for lowest at $2.119, with the highest average in metro Savannah at $2.205, according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

Last week, GasBuddy market experts said the winter low had bottomed out. U.S. refineries are required by federal environmental rules to shift to the more expensive “summer blend” for warmer weather, and routine maintenance is usually conducted at that time as well. The resulting production drop sends prices up, with GasBuddy noting that last year there was a 69-cent increase, with a 78-cent increase in 2015 for the changeover period.

“Refinery liquidation of cheaper winter grade fuel keeps pump prices in similar territory for the week ahead,” Dan McTeague, GasBuddy’s senior petroleum analyst, said. “The ongoing saga of global oil production limitations becomes less important as refineries begin the early stages of maintenance and turnarounds to accommodate summer gasoline blends.”

Winter-blend gas has a higher evaporation rate that is needed for an auto engine to work properly at lower temperatures. Summer blend, which is more expensive to produce and contains more energy, has a lower volatility rate to decrease emissions that contribute to smog and ozone levels.

AAA officials noted that U.S. oil production has held steady at 8.97 million barrels a day, offsetting OPEC efforts to increase oil prices. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers agreed late last year to cut production by 1.8 million barrels for a six-month period starting Jan. 1, and OPEC officials report they’re seeing about 90 percent of that goal achieved, AAA officials said.

“Crude oil continues to drive the market,” Josh Carrasco, spokesman for AAA Auto Club Group, said. “Domestic oil production and a glut in oil and gas supplies are keeping a lid on prices at the pump. The best time to fill up your tank is now because, historically, gas prices begin to climb until we reach Memorial Day.”

Gas prices Monday were far above the averages motorists were paying last year. Nationally, drivers are paying at least 56 cents more per gallon over the 2016 average that was slightly below $1.72. Georgia motorists are paying 52.8 cents more than the $1.65 they were paying last year, and metro Albany drivers are paying 51.1 cents more than last year.

AAA said the average increase from February to the early summer peak is 54 cents per gallon. In their projections released last week, GasBuddy market experts say prices will rise 35-75 cents between February lows and the peak, which they think will plateau in May. The nation’s collective daily “gasoline bill,” currently at $788 million, will rise to as much as $1.1 billion by Memorial Day, GasBuddy says.

GasBuddy experts say gas will break the $3 mark in large cities, including Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Seattle, with gas price volatility more likely in the Great Lakes and West Coast areas than other regions.

“While I remain optimistic this year will not bring a ‘running of the bulls,’ we’re likely to see some major increases at the gas pump as the seasonal transition and refinery maintenance get under way,” McTeague said. “Overall, most areas will see peak prices under $3 per gallon, and while that’s far under prices a few years ago, watching prices surge every spring certainly brings heartburn with it.

“If we were to add the five-year average increase we see during the spring, the national average would be thrust to $2.85 per gallon around Memorial Day, a 59 cent rise from the $2.26 per gallon observed Feb. 9.”