Short-term gas prices look good, but uptick is on the way

ALBANY — Metro Albany on Monday was lowest among the state’s eight largest metro areas for average gas prices as Georgia bucked the national trend of dropping gas prices over the past week.

Motorists in the five-county Albany MSA were paying $2.074 per gallon, according to the morning benchmark price by AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report. Macon was second-lowest at $2.109, while the highest average metro prices were in Savannah, $2.225, and Atlanta, $2.21.

Statewide, motorists were paying an average $2.182 (GasBuddy’s survey was slightly higher), up half a cent to slightly more than a penny compared to last week, depending on the survey. Still, Georgia drivers were well below the national average Monday, which was $2.268 averaging the AAA and GasBuddy surveys.

The downward trend is expected to reverse itself toward the end of the month as refineries begin conducting maintenance and prepare to convert to summer-blend fuel, and travel starts to ramp up with spring break and Memorial Day approaching. Pump prices, however, look promising for the near term, experts say.

“Increased domestic oil production and low seasonal demand continue to push gas prices lower,” Josh Carrasco, a spokesman for AAA Auto Club Group, said. “Oil and gas inventories are above-average for this time of year, which should continue to keep downward pressure on pump prices in the short-term.”

Patrick DeHann, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com, concurred.

“Gasoline prices nationally have continued their typical seasonal trajectory lower,” DeHaan said. “Gasoline inventories have continued to show impressive gains lately, limiting the effects of rising oil prices on gasoline prices for the time being. While the majority of states (37) saw average gasoline prices decline, 13 saw prices advancing, especially in the Great Lakes, thanks to the region’s price cycling mechanisms.

“Gasoline prices should continue to remain relatively low during the next week, but Wednesday’s weekly report from the Energy Information Administration will be a major key to understand when the bulk of refinery season has begun and what impact that will have on gasoline inventories.”

Carrasco said reports indicated that OPEC plans to reduce production this calendar year appeared to be sticking, with the oil cartel cutting production by about 1 million barrels in January, about 80 percent of the production cut OPEC members agreed to late last year. That, he said, has crude oil prices moving upward, with U.S. crude closing Friday at 453.83.

Industry analysts, Carrasco said, expect gas prices will likely reach $2.50-$2.80 per gallon this spring. For the year, he said, the Energy Information Administration is projecting the average national price will be $2.38 in 2017, which would be 23 cents higher than the 2016 average.

Compared to Jan. 6, prices are down across the board, with the national average about a dime lower and Georgia motorists saving about 7.5 cents. For metro Albany, the month-to-month drop has been 12.5 cents.

Compared to last year, however, prices are significantly higher, also across the board. Nationally, motorists are paying about 52 cents more per gallon than they were on Feb. 6, 2016, which translates to an extra $10.40 on a 20-gallon fill-up. In Georgia, the difference is about 47.6 cents higher, while in metro Albany drivers are paying 42.5 cents more than last year, when retail gas was averaging $1.649.