GARY WISENBAKER: Where is the Georgia GOP senate nomination race headed?

Now that the third-quarter FEC filings are in for the US Senate contest in Georgia, it’s a good time to take stock of the GOP primary field. The contest for the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most consequential, and potentially divisive, races in Georgia’s political history. Three prominent names dominate the field: Rep. Buddy Carter, Rep. Mike Collins, and former football coach and political newcomer Derek Dooley.

Each brings a unique background and set of supporters, but as the numbers stand today, one fact is increasingly clear: The GOP risks exhausting its resources and weakening its general-election position if it does not soon coalesce around a leading candidate.

Through the first nine months of 2025, campaign finance filings and polling trends have painted a vivid picture of both the opportunity and the peril ahead for Republicans. According to data reported to the Federal Election Commission and summarized by the Associated Press, Carter’s campaign reported roughly $3.6 million in receipts through June 30, including a hefty $2 million loan from the candidate himself. And that may mean that his campaign has not demonstrated the breadth of grassroots donor enthusiasm that typically signals a winning coalition in a statewide race.

By contrast, Mike Collins, who entered the race after two terms in Congress, reported $1.9 million raised through Sept. 30, including funds transferred from his House campaign and funds raised across all 159 of Georgia’s counties. This brings his total haul to $2.9 million with $2.4 million cash on hand.

Derek Dooley, meanwhile, reported $1.85 million raised and about $1.7 million on hand.

Those totals suggest a financially competitive field, but one in which Carter’s early monetary advantage is artificially inflated by self-financing rather than widespread support.

The fundraising picture becomes even more significant when paired with the latest polling. Early 2025 surveys had Sen. Ossoff leading most Republican challengers by mid-to high-single digits. In January, WPA Intelligence showed Ossoff with double-digit advantages over Carter and Collins.

But by late summer, the race had tightened considerably. A September Quantus Insights poll placed Ossoff at 38% and Collins at 38%, a statistical tie. Buddy Carter trailed only
slightly, at 37% to Ossoff’s 40. Derek Dooley remained several points behind in most
public surveys.

This steady narrowing of the margin, particularly Collins’ move from an early spring deficit of six or seven points to a virtual tie by September, suggests that the GOP’s potential to reclaim the seat is real and growing. Ossoff’s lead has eroded as non-college white and exurban voters shift toward Republican candidates, while Democrats continue to rely on urban, younger, and black voters to hold their advantage.

The party’s grassroots — and its leadership — should heed the warning signs. At this juncture, Collins appears to be the only Republican who has pulled even with Ossoff in credible public polling. His steady rise reflects both expanding name recognition and the perception of electability among conservative voters.

Republican voters in Georgia have every reason to be optimistic about the direction of this race. Ossoff’s once-comfortable edge has narrowed to the margin of error. A disciplined and united GOP campaign could flip this seat and restore a Republican voice to one of Georgia’s two Senate positions. But to do that, party leaders, donors and voters must rally behind a single viable candidate,sooner rather than later.

Every dollar spent on intraparty attacks is a dollar not spent defeating Jon Ossoff. Every week wasted prolonging internal division is a week lost in building the statewide coalition that will be necessary to win next November. The polls show the window of opportunity is open. Right now, the money race and polling momentum appear to be moving toward Collins. The question for Georgia’s GOP electorate is whether they will recognize that reality in time to act.

Gary Wisenbaker is a Realtor with Century 21 Realty Advisors and can be reached at
[email protected] and (912) 713-2553.