All signs point to epic Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby is the world’s most famous horse race and the most exciting two minutes in sports, but it’s also one of the most difficult events to predict, and this year’s 144th running on Saturday evening at venerable Churchill Downs is no different.

Yes, there are plenty of superstar 3-year-old-horses set to test the 1 1/4-mile race, namely race favorite Justify, who has won all three of his prep events including the prestigious Santa Anita Derby; Eclipse Award recipient Good Magic, who took the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall; and European invader Mendelssohn, who was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner and this season’s runaway UAE Derby champion.

Then there’s Florida Derby winner Audible, undefeated Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon, Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, and Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy, all of whom are in top form and threats to capture the Run for the Roses.

Five of the 20 horses in the field will be saddled by trainers who are already in the Hall of Fame (Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Jerry Hollendorfer, D. Wayne Lukas and Bill Mott), while four more are conditioned by Todd Pletcher, a trainer who has sent more horses to this race that any other horseman.

The wild card here might be Mendelssohn, the horse from Ireland who has been pointed to this race by Aidan O’Brien, the superstar European trainer who last year set a single-season record with 28 Grade 1 or Group 1 stakes victories.

In all, the trainers of the 20 runners have combined for 10 Derby wins and 23 Eclipse Awards as outstanding trainer, both the most ever for a single running of the Derby.

The top contenders in this Derby have held their form all spring and have recorded fast speed figures. It’s likely the most talented group of runners this race has seen in a quarter-century, especially among the top 10 horses in the field.

“The race is pretty top-heavy,” said Baffert, who sends out Justify and a long shot, Solomini. “All the final prep races I thought were pretty good.”

All the guesses and handicapping using various angles can be ignored as the gates open on Saturday, when more than 150,000 fans are in full throat and 20 horses barrel down the front straightaway at Churchill Downs just hoping to survive the crush that heads into that first turn.

Justify will try to become the first horse to win the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.

“I don’t look at Apollo’s curse,” Baffert said. “I’d rather have the best horse than a horse who’s run 10 times. Just going there with a horse who’s very good, having a chance with a superior racehorse is special. It’s a challenge just to get (to the Derby).”

Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner trying to become the first trainer in 20 years to win consecutive Derbies, sends out the aforementioned potent foursome of Audible, Magnum Moon, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso, all winners of major preps in their most recent races.

“We’ve had a great spring,” said Pletcher, who is tied with Lukas for the most Derby starters with 48. “The horses are doing well. I feel good. But I appreciate how difficult it is to win.”

Good Magic, trained by two-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown, is the “live” long shot in this race, with the Derby as the third start of his form cycle this year. He has moved across the track at Churchill Downs in training like a locomotive, and he looks bigger and stronger than he did prior to his win last year in the sport’s biggest race for 2-year-olds.

“Good Magic looks to really be in a zone right now,” said Brown, who is still seeking his first Derby victory. “We set up a plan, hoped the horse would cooperate, and he has.”

Mendelssohn captured the UAE Derby in his dirt debut and will try to give O’Brien and British jockey Ryan Moore their first victory in one of the few international races that the duo has not paired to win.

Mendelssohn had his first morning on the track Thursday after clearing quarantine Wednesday, and he spent it getting used to his new surroundings. No winner of the UAE Derby has continued on to win in the Kentucky Derby, with the best result in nine tries a sixth-place finish.

Bolt d’Oro and the lightly raced Hofburg have to be considered as well, if not as highly as some of the others in the race. Bolt d’Oro was a sharp second behind Justify in the Santa Anita Derby and could make Mick Ruis, his owner and trainer, a Derby winner in his first try. Hofburg is trying to give Mott his first Derby winner, and he has had a head-turning week of training that illustrates why a conservative trainer like Mott is taking on the Derby with a horse with so few starts.

If a full field of 20 starters, the gross purse of the Derby will be $2,192,000, with $1,432,000 going to the winner.

Since a maximum of 20 horses can run but 21 were entered Tuesday, Blended Citizen — as the horse with the fewest points earned in Derby prep races — was placed on the also-eligible list. He only can get in if one of the 20 in the main body of the race is withdrawn by scratch time, which is 9 a.m. ET Friday.

Weather could be a factor as well, as forecasts for Derby Day call for a 40 percent chance of rain, with showers in the afternoon and a high of 76 degrees.

–By Steve Habel, Field Level Media