Kevin Harvick in control as Chase winds down

Kevin Harvick can put two of his strongest rivals at Penske Racing out of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup if he can score a fifth straight win at Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday. But the odds and Harvick himself say it will be difficult to keep his winning streak going on the flat, one-mile oval.

“There are a lot of good race car drivers and lots of circumstances that could play out to have things go wrong,” said Harvick. “You go there with a fresh start like you’ve never won there before and try to get the car dialed in.”

Although last year Harvick needed a win at Phoenix and got it to advance to the final round at the Homestead-Miami Speedway – here he won again to clinch the title – there is a lot at stake again this year. He is second in points in the Eliminator round and can clinch a berth in the finale at the Homestead-Miami Speedway if he finishes as high as third and leads a lap. But a victory would prevent three rivals from advancing.

Penske Racing drivers Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are in sore need of a victory at Phoenix to advance. For Logano, 63 points below the cut line, it’s his only hope. For Keselowski, who is sixth and 19 points below the cut line, it’s virtually the same story.

The Penske teams have been front runners the entire season and Logano was gunning for his fourth straight win this season when he was intentionally crashed by Matt Kenseth at Martinsville. So if either of the Penske drivers makes it to Homestead, he will be a strong contender.

Kurt Busch, a teammate of Harvick at Stewart-Haas Racing, is 26 points below the cut line and virtually needs to win in order to advance. A two-time winner this season, Busch may have cooled off but cannot be counted out on tracks like Phoenix or Homestead – where Busch clinched his championship in the first year of the Chase in 2004.

This year’s defending champ has been down this road before. Harvick needed a win to advance out of the first round of this year’s Chase and led 216 laps before running out of fuel two laps from the finish. He went on to win at Dover to advance.

Harvick said he doesn’t necessarily enjoy an edge – although the car being prepared by crew chief Rodney Childers for Phoenix won there in the spring. “I feel like that (edge) can be gone at any point,” said Harvick. “That’s the hardest thing about having success. You have to have an open mind to try new things to keep moving forward. If you don’t have an open mind or are not willing to try a fresh approach, then it will get stagnant. You’re going to become stale and get left behind.”

Becoming stale is a problem throughout a season or during a race. Last week in Texas, it appeared Keselowski would advance to Homestead with a victory while leading 312 laps. But the mid-race adjustments made by Jimmie Johnson improved his Hendrick Motorsports Chevy enough to overtake the Ford driver at the finish. Keselowksi and his team were a little too conservative when it came to making adjustments for the changing conditions of the track and got beat as a result.

There is an edge in knowing what has worked in the past, said Harvick. “As we go to Phoenix, we have to look at the things that we’ve done well. Obviously, we’ve done a lot of good things. We look at the race tape and pay attention to the lines and braking, steering, throttle and all the things that you have access to and you try to mimic that immediately when you get on the racetrack.”

But adapting to the prevailing conditions is the key. Last week in Texas, a sunny day that followed limited practice during overcast and rainy conditions was a case study in teams trying to adapt quickly. Harvick was among those who suffered tire problems that Goodyear engineers attributed to teams not having enough time to find the edge of the envelope when it came to tire wear. Harvick was lucky not to lose lap or damage his car when twice he had to make unscheduled pit stops for tire troubles.

“The hard part about our sport is the conditions are never the same,” said Harvick. “The tire is constantly changing. You never know if it’s going to be 100 degrees (ambient temperature) or if it’s going to be 50 degrees. That makes a big difference on the balance of the car, how much downforce it makes and how much tape you can run on the front. There are all kinds of things to navigate through once you get there.”