Tony’s Take | Falcons Future | Top 5 | X Posts | Edition 108

By Tony Duckworth, [email protected]

Falcons Future.  Falcons owner Arthur Blank’s organization has not made the NFL playoffs since 2017.  Atlanta led the Patriots 28 – 3 in the third quarter of the Super Bowl that season.  Atlanta lost the lead, which led to New England securing the biggest comeback in SB history.  I apologize for the reminder, Falcons fan. 

At the time, Dan Quinn led the Dirty Birds, but he was let go during the 2020 season.  Blank and team leadership in Flowery Branch next two head coaching hires Arthur Smith and Raheem Morris strung together five consecutive losing seasons.  The cloud of the 2017 SB meltdown continues to haunt the organization.    

Following last season, Blank stood up and made appropriate changes at the top of the organization and turned the organization over to Falcons alumnus QB Matt Ryan as team President.  While Ryan has no experience in this space, clearly this is an upgrade from the previous regime. Ryan lived it as a player, and he knows what a winning organization feels like. Ryan hired a new GM and Kevin Stefanski, who previously led the Cleveland Browns.  This is the first coach the Falcons have hired with NFL head coaching experience since Dan Reeves in 1997.  Yes, 1997.  That’s nine head coaches, including interims, since Reeves.  Reeves led the Falcons to their first Super Bowl appearance. 

The move to turn the organization over to Ryan, arguably the most decorated player in franchise history, gives Falcons fans reason for optimism.  However, according to ESPN’s annual Future Power Rankings, the Falcons scored 27th of 32 NFL franchises.  The rankings project where each organization will be between 2027 and 2029. 

ESPN ranked the results from their panelists using four categories to create the overall score: quarterback (20%), roster excluding QB (30%), front office (25%), and coaching (25%). The ranking is based on how well each team is positioned for the future. 

Every fan knows the most important position in all of sports is QB.  Falcon fans following the red and black this pre-season recognize the QB position has been a disaster.  Atlanta’s top pick several drafts ago, Michael Penix, has yet to return to live play in practice following season-ending surgery last season.  The previous staff never developed Penix to take snaps under center, so no ‘play action’ shrunk Atlanta’s playbook when Penix played.   

Longtime Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailo was brought in to compete against Penix. Tua led BAMA to a stunning comeback over UGA in the 2018 CFP National Championship.  Tua has had flashes of brilliance, but durability has plagued the QB throughout his career.  Following the Falcons’ first pre-season game, Tua was quoted as saying his performance “Was not even up to par”.  It’s no secret the Falcons ranked 31 of 32 in QB score in ESPN Future Rankings. 

The other three categories rank the Falcons at 24th in the front office, 21st best roster when excluding the QB, and 17th in coaching.  As a result, the ESPN Future Rankings extend the organization’s playoff drought through 2029.  Yes, even in the NFC South. 

While the above is a forecast, it does not appear there is reason to be bullish on the Dirty Birds in the near future.  For me, until the Falcons solve the QB position, it will be tough sledding.  

Top 5.  The Top 5 organizations according to ESPN’s Future Ranks include: 1. Seahawks, 2. Eagles, 3. Lions, 4. Broncos, and 5. Rams.  Interestingly, QB rankings in this group ranged from 13 – 24.  However, rosters excluding QB ranged from 1 – 6. Every team except the Eagles coaching ranked between 1 – 7.  Top-tier rosters combined with elite coaching equal success in the NFL. 

X posts.  @DM_Shirley posts “College football coaching tiers 2026: It’s Curt Cignetti and Kirby Smart, then everyone else”. 

For me, unless Cignetti pulls another rabbit out of the hat this season or next, give him at least four seasons of elite success before you put him on par with Kirby. 

@ByPatForde posts “First time since 2015 that no SEC team got a No. 1 vote in the preseason AP poll.” 

The SEC is the 2^nd best football conference in the land. 

@Brett_McMurphy “In last 3 years, College Football Playoff records vs. the other Power 4 conferences Big Ten 9-3* | ACC 3-3 | SEC 2-7 | Big 12 0-3 | *Won 3 national titles” 

The SEC is the 3^rd best conference the past three seasons in the CFP.  7 less wins than the BIG10 and 4 more losses than the ACC and Big12. 

Tony Duckworth is a native of Macon and is the President and CEO of the Albany Area YMCA. Tony worked in intercollegiate athletics for thirty-one years. He was an NCAA Division II Director of Athletics at three universities following ten years as a head men’s basketball coach at two colleges. Email Tony Duckworth at [email protected].