SCOTT LUDWIG: Sometimes you need more than ‘pretty sure’

In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.

Benjamin Franklin said that. But don’t take his word for it, because it isn’t necessarily true. Residents of Monaco and Bermuda don’t pay taxes, for example. And former professional baseball player Ted Williams, who is cryogenically frozen, would argue that even death isn’t a given. (Be sure to let everyone know how that works out for you, Mr. Williams.)

There was a commercial a few years back with a father telling his family that he was “pretty sure” that the fin sticking out of the ocean belonged to a dolphin. It seems to me that you’d want to be a little bit more than pretty sure it was a dolphin and not something else, like a Great White shark, capable of biting off an arm or a leg. In other words, you can never be too sure. Or putting it another way, you can never be sure enough.

There are times when being pretty sure just doesn’t work. Times that absolutely positive is the only thing that’s acceptable. Ask yourself the following questions:

— If you’re flying at an altitude of 30,000 feet, would you want the pilot to announce over the intercom that he’s pretty sure the plane has enough fuel to make it to Hawaii?
— Or after laying out $60,000 for a new automobile, would you want your insurance agent to say he’s pretty sure your insurance policy covers any accidents that weren’t your fault?
— Here’s where that might hit home: If you’re an Atlanta Falcons fan, weren’t you pretty sure the game was in the bag when the Falcons had a 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI? So were the oddsmakers, who gave the Falcons, holding a 25- point lead in the third quarter, a 99.6% chance of winning.

Nothing is ever a sure thing. There are just too many moving parts in any situation to be absolutely positive that things are going to turn out the way you expect them to. Here’s a brief quiz. Check any of the following that apply to you:

 Was there an algebra test in high school you were pretty sure you were ready to take?
 Was there a woman you were pretty sure would accept your proposal of marriage? (For the women: was there a man you were pretty sure was going to ask you to be his wife?)
 Or was there a night you were pretty sure your parents didn’t hear you come home after your curfew?
 Or that one other night you were pretty sure you didn’t have too much to drink?

If you had a perfect score – that is, if you didn’t check any of the four items – you ‘re free to go. If that’s not the case – if you would rather not answer the question How did that work out for you? you might want to stick around. (I’m pretty sure you’re all still here, just as I’m pretty sure things didn’t always turn out how you wanted them to.)

Here’s a rather extreme example, although it captures the essence of the point I’m trying to make:
 At one time, John Wayne Gacy was an upstanding citizen of Chicago. Gacy was a general contractor with a part-time job as a clown entertaining children. I imagine people who knew him at the time were pretty sure he could never be responsible for the horrifying deaths of 33 young men. But that’s exactly the case.

So now, if I hear someone say they’re pretty sure it’s OK to eat a sandwich made with luncheon meat that smells kind of funky, I’ll say, “I’m pretty sure it’s a dolphin.” Loosely translated, it means that if things go sideways, don’t be looking at me.

That way, if anyone ends up in the emergency room to get their stomach pumped, I’m fairly certain I can’t be held responsible. I might not be 100% certain, but I’m pretty sure.