Gas prices like to rise soon

ALBANY — Gas prices were steady over the past week as February neared its close, but seasonal increases, historically in the 30-70 cent range between February and late May, are coming, market experts say.

Both major U.S. gas surveys — the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report and the GasBuddy Fuel Insights — had the national average at Monday morning’s benchmark at $2.286, flat from the previous Monday and from January, though the average per gallon was about 58.5 cents higher than last year. On a 16-gallon fill-up, a motorist is paying about $9.40 more than last year.

Motorists should expect to see a rise at the gas pumps as spring break, Memorial Day and the summer driving season approach and refineries conduct maintenance and switch to summer blend gas production.

“The seasonal increase hasn’t begun yet, but it’s coming,” AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins said. “Prices usually rise this time of year as refineries power-down some of their machinery for routine maintenance and prepare for the switch to the more expensive summer blend gasoline.

“Because of the outages, refineries don’t produce as much gasoline. All this comes at a time when demand typically rises as Americans resume road trips in the spring.”

That tighter supply likely will affect prices sooner rather than later, Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst, said.

“With refinery maintenance and turnarounds beginning across the country,” DeHaan said, “we’ll likely see a draw down on winter gasoline stocks, leading the national average to rise in the week ahead.

“Despite oil prices that remain range bound in the low to mid-$50s per barrel, refinery status and the likely draw in inventories will win this week’s tug of war at the pump, keeping upward pressure on gasoline prices. In addition, unexpected refinery outages could cause additional volatility or spikes in prices over the next two months due to the limited ability for other refiners to help offset any production losses while performing their planned maintenance.”

There are indications Georgia could be among the “early risers.” Jenkins said reports from the federal Energy Information Administration show a 1 percent decline in capacity at refineries along the Gulf Coast, a major gasoline resource for Georgia and Florida. Compared to the previous week, gasoline production levels in the Gulf Coast dropped 7 percent and supply fell 2 percent, while demand rose 2 percent.

Still, Georgia motorists were paying about 7.5 cents per gallon less than drivers were nationally Monday, with the surveys showing the statewide average hovering around the $2.21 mark, up 2-2.5 cents over the previous Monday and 2.5-3 cents higher than last month. Last year, Georgia motorists were paying a little over $1.65 a gallon.

Metro Albany — comprising Dougherty, Lee, Baker, Terrell and Worth counties — was at $2.141 Monday on the Daily Fuel Gauge Report, which bucked the trend by being nearly a penny below the previous Monday. Compared to last month, Albany motorists were paying 2.5 cents more per gallon and 45.4 cents more than last year.

Among the eight Georgia metro areas included in the AAA survey, Albany ranked third behind Augusta and Macon, which tied at $2.114 for the state’s lowest average. The most expensive gas Monday was being sold in Atlanta, where the metro area was averaging $2.249.