Midterm elections could impact Second Congressional District of Georgia

ALBANY — With the midterm elections coming in November, the margin between Republicans and Democrats in each chamber of Congress is expected to tighten. That is because the party of the president in power usually loses seats in midterm elections.

The question is whether there could be enough seat-changes to flip control of one or both chambers.

That would require a large amount of turnover. Currently in the U.S. House, where 218 seats are needed for a party majority, there are are 247 Republicans and 187 Democrats, along with one vacant seat. Republicans would have to lose 30 seats to give Democrats a razor-thin majority.

In the 100-member Senate, there are 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats would have to pick up five Senate seats to regain control, since a 50-50 split would leave Republicans with the benefit of having the tie-breaking vote cast by Vice President Mike Pence, a Republican who serves as president of the Senate.

With Georgia a red state, it would seem GOP control of both houses would be a benefit. Georgia, however, might still come out ahead — as well as the Second Congressional District that includes four of the five counties comprising metro Albany — if the House were to come under Democratic control.

In an interview earlier this month, the question of what impact a changeover in either or both chambers of Congress might have was posed to Charles Bullock, who holds the holds the Richard B. Russell Chair in Political Science at the University of Georgia. Bullock has been at UGA for 47 of the last 50 years, and is an expert on Southern politics, legislative politics, and elections and electoral systems.

With both of Georgia’s senators — Johnny Isakson and David Perdue — Republicans, a Democrat-run Senate would be a blow, both to the state and the White House.

“Now, President Trump can get judicial nominees approved with 51 votes,” Bullock said. “But if it’s majority Democrat, he may not even get his judicial nominees to the floor of the Senate to vote on. They may be held back in the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

Though 10 of Georgia’s 14 House members are Republicans, the impact of a Democrat-controlled House wouldn’t have the debilitating political affect one might expect. In fact, it could be the opposite.

“It (a control flip) would reduce our influence in the Senate,” Bullock said, “but in terms of the House, actually, it might enhance our influence. The four Democrats we have in the House all have a great deal of seniority. Among the (Georgia) Republicans, the most senior member only goes back to 2010.

“In Congress, seniority is tremendously important.”

Reps. John Lewis, D-Atlanta, and Sanford Bishop, D-Albany, have the longest tenures of the state’s House delegation. Lewis took office in 1987 and Bishop in 1993. Rep. David Scott, D-Atlanta, has been in Congress since 2003, and Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Atlanta, since 2007. The Republican with the longest time of service is Rep. Tom Graves, R-Rome, who came on board in June 2010, six months ahead of Reps. Austin Scott, R-Tifton, and Rob Woodall, R-Lawrenceville. Rep. Doug Collins, R-Gainesville, took office in 2o13, with the remainder of Georgia’s GOP House members assuming office in 2015 or later.

“Sanford Bishop most certainly would be a subcommittee chair on Appropriations. He’d be what they call one of the cardinals,” Bullock said. “John Lewis might chair a subcommittee on Ways and Means. Of the four Democrats, each one of them might be chairing a subcommittee.”

He said he doesn’t see either party’s hold on a congressional district it currently controls in Georgia eroding.

“I don’t think we’ll see any changes in our congressional delegation,” Bullock said. “Each of the districts are pretty solidly Democrat or Republican, so it would take a huge wave to modify any of those. But the rest of the country, taking some seats will be a question of, Can they get the net gain of two dozen or so seats they need to take control of the House?

“If they do, Donald Trump’s life is going to be a lot less fun because if the Democrats control either chamber, they control the committees and the committees will begin to investigate all kinds of aspects. As the president, you do not want to see the other party take control of either chamber of Congress.”

One wild card this midterm election year that could have impact is an exodus of sorts of Republicans from Congress.

“What is working in favor of the Democrats is — last time I looked — 33 Republican members (of Congress) have decided they’re not going to run again,” Bullock said. “It’s always easier to flip a seat if you don’t have to try to take out an incumbent.”

It’s also unusual for that many members of the controlling party to leave, he noted.

“One of the unusual things about seeing the retirement be overwhelmingly Republican is usually what you see is retirement of a disproportionate size in the minority party because if you’re in the minority party, you don’t get to chair a committee, your bills are less likely to be enacted and you don’t get much reward,” he said.

An unusually high number of ruling-party retirements from Congress could create a self-fulfilling prophesy if the people leaving are doing so because they think the GOP’s hold is beginning to weaken.

“We talk about there being wave elections,” Bullock said when asked whether some of those retiring may be sensing a change in the political winds. “It may the ‘abandoning of ship’ by a number of Republicans may be in part because they sense the wave is coming and it’s going to a be a wave that is cresting Democrats. Of course, the fact that a number of them (GOP lawmakers) are stepping down may be contributing to the wave, making it greater or higher than it would otherwise be.

“Some of them — certainly not all of them — are individuals who last time had a difficult time holding onto their office. If you asked them could they get re-elected, they’d say, ‘Oh, sure I could, but it would take an all-out effort on my part and cost millions of dollars and I’m not up to doing that anymore. If I were 10 years younger I’d do it, but not now.’”

On the state level, officials with a county like Dougherty that is blue will need to continue to work across the aisle, though there likely will be more Democrats in the General Assembly when it goes into session in 2019.

“The thing we will see is the Democrats picking up some seats in the state Legislature,” Bullock said. “I think the Republican strength in the Legislature has crested and has begun to ebb. It doesn’t mean that Democrats are on the verge of taking over the State House and the State Senate, but I think they will make some gains.”

Bullock said, however, it would take a serious misstep for Republicans to lose any statewide offices, from the governorship on down.

“I think we’re still going to be overall a red state,” he said. “In our statewide elections coming up, in each of those positions the odds favor the Republicans. But the Democrats now have become competitive enough that if there were to be some slip-up or error on the part of Republicans, a Democrat might be able to get in.

“The situation, I think, is akin to what we saw in the 1990s when we were still a Democratic state, but Republicans were beginning to make some gains. If 2018 were to have a hard-fought primary that extended into a runoff and the runoff got really nasty, we might see a situation where the supporters of the losing candidate might refuse to vote for the winner — either vote for the Democrats or just sit it out — and that’s the kind of thing that could open a door for a Democratic candidate. But if Republicans have their act together, they’ll probably win.”