JUDY WEISS: T. Gamble rambles into climate bramble

I’m responding to T. Gamble’s climate change ramble (Read T. Gamble’s Thursday Perspectives page column here). Last week, my husband and I ambled over to see a friend of 30 years, an esteemed computer scientist. The subject of climate change arose. Our friend said computer models aren’t complete because they don’t include ocean algae. I told him about one of my climate-change friends, a computer scientist specializing in data analysis. He went to climate conferences for two decades, helping climate scientists analyze data and compare it to the models.

After about 10 years of the conferences, he realized he had picked up a common theme: every paper every year concluded the models are wrong. Compared to measured data, models understate actual measured change. When conference attendees confirmed that he understood correctly, he joined Citizens’ Climate Lobby to work for a carbon-pricing solution.

Our friend blew off my story because I’m not a scientist and don’t understand modeling.

But my husband, a research mathematician specializing in probability, rare events and data analysis, said, “Yes, but we cannot run experiments on other Earth-like planets to see what will happen, so we must rely on models that will always be somewhat incomplete. Our models indicate things might be bad, and who would risk that our best models are wrong?”

Our friend nodded, admitting that we shouldn’t take that gamble.

It’s important to know the language of climate, the purposes of models, and basics of science. Mr. Gamble gamboled through a century of sea level rise, not understanding that measured data shows it isn’t progressing at the same rate now. It’s accelerating. Models show unequivocally that its acceleration will accelerate. The debate is how fast and what shambles will result.

For 40 years, my husband has complained to me about climate change. He doesn’t worry about food shortages, droughts, health issues or wildfires. His concern is sea level rise because that can’t be fixed by new technologies. Moving cities and infrastructure is prohibitively expensive and dealing with refugees will be a scramble.

Gamble’s gambol rambled into a bramble because he knows no research scientists to guide his hamble. Please contact Citizens’ Climate Lobby volunteers to help lobby Congress for legislation to stabilize the climate.

JUDY WEISS

Brookline, Mass.